CMHC releases report on health of various housing markets

by Justin da Rosa29 Oct 2015
Four major metropolitan areas show strong evidence of problematic housing market conditions, according to a report from the Crown Corporation.

CMHC’s Housing Market Assessment (HMA), released Thursday afternoon, points to “strong evidence” of problematic conditions in Toronto, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, and Regina.

According to the report, Toronto’s analysis is a reflection of price acceleration and overvaluation; the other markets show evidence of overvaluation and overbuilding.

Other markets, meanwhile, are at risk of overvaluation.

“The most prevalent issue detected in 11 of the 15 centres covered by the HMA is overvaluation. The evidence of overvaluation has increased since the previous assessment in Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, Edmonton, and Saskatoon as price levels are not fully supported by economic and demographic factors,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist. “Problematic overvaluation conditions in local housing markets could be resolved by moderation in house prices and/or improving economic conditions.”

Noticeably left off the list of problematic markets is Vancouver.

“The HMA points to weak evidence of overall problematic conditions in Vancouver, though we are now detecting moderate evidence of overvaluation,” CMHC said in the report. “However, overheating, acceleration in house prices and overbuilding are not a concern in this market.”

The analysis looked at the national housing market as well as 15 major metropolitan areas -- Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa, Montréal, Québec, Moncton, St. John’s and Halifax.
 

COMMENTS

  • by 10/29/2015 9:05:18 PM

    This report does not include any supporting evidence, to why CMHC chief economist think this way. Look around the globe and then compare, if Toronto is still a deal or not.

  • by 10/30/2015 3:15:27 AM

    I AM A TORONTO BASED BROKER (SINCE 1960) BUT AS A MEMBER OF FIABCI AND HAVING SOLD IN EUROPE I HAVE MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT TORONTO BEING OVERVALUED. yes there are pockets where poorly constructed homes that have been cheaply renovated are selling for $ 1 million and up .without parking...compared to solid brick homes well built in more established areas at 2 TO 3.MILLION ON BETTER LOTS . This is a question of affordability over value where the price of 2insul brick semi s can be more than 1 solid brick home on a much bigger lot with a private drive. unfortunately the younger buyers just cannot afford the better value BUT WE HAVE A HUGE SELECTION OF HIGH RISE CONDO FROM AS LOW AS $ 300 ALL THE WAY TO 5 MILLION in central areas. some with no need for driving to work but they are small for anyone wanting family space. Affordability in the $3 mill and up is not a problem in either larger condo apts or single family homes and in that range we do still compare very well with other major cities. Our biggest shortage is in the lower affordability range from $500 to $ 800.unless buyers are prepared or able to commute. TORONTO has better values in central areas than a lot of other major cities including Vancouver so I would not call it over valued on an international scale,

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