"From a national perspective, these findings support an overall balanced outlook on Canada's condo market for 2015, with the exception of certain oil-exposed regions," said Stuart Levings, president and CEO of Genworth Canada in an official release. "We continue to see evidence that population growth and employment remain key drivers of demand for condos in urban centres."
Toronto, oft thought of as one of Canada’s most at-risk markets, has not entered bubble territory, according to the study which points to expected population hikes, immigration rates, and empty nesters expected to flock to the market.
“Resale volumes are solid and prices continue to rise,” the study, entitled Insights Into the Apartment Condominium Market in Eight Large Canadian Metropolitan Areas
, states. “A soft landing remains our call for this market segment, although brief periods of inflation-adjusted price drops are possible.”
Things look slightly bleaker in Alberta, however.
“Calgary's economy will be hit in 2015 as declining oil prices lead to declines in GDP and employment. The soft economy will result in price and sales declines in 2015. Starts are also expected to retreat as the market adjusts to this rapidly shifting economic landscape,” the release states. “Edmonton's condominium market will also experience declining sales and prices in 2015. As in Calgary, the depth and duration of the market's downturn directly depend on oil prices.”
Vancouver’s housing recovery is expected to continue; however housing starts are expected to remain low. High demand from offshore will continue, boosting prices and making it the country’s least affordable city.
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In a comprehensive study of condo markets across Canada, Genworth and the Conference Board of Canada are predicting a soft landing in most cities, with some expected to see more significant price drops.