Teranet-National HPI rises but it’s seasonal pressure driving prices

by Steve Randall15 Aug 2018

The newly-published Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index shows a gain for July but belies what’s happening below the top line.

The 0.8% rise, albeit large, is below the month’s long-term average of 1% and although it’s the second month of increases for the HPI, the adjusted data dashes hopes of a trend.

Seasonally-adjusted, the HPI would have declined in June and been flat in July.

Unadjusted, the index shows a rise in prices for 10 of the 11 metro areas, led by Ottawa-Gatineau (2.3%), Winnipeg (1.9%), Montreal (1.3%), Halifax (1.2%) and Hamilton (1.1%).

Toronto gained 0.8%, Edmonton (0.7%), Quebec City (0.6%), Vancouver (0.4%) and Victoria (0.4%). Calgary was flat.

The index tracks price changes and reports those changes as a percentage rise or fall based on a value of 100 at June 2005.

In July 2018, the composite index’s value was 218.13.

For Vancouver and Toronto, the seasonally-adjusted index shows a decline in July.

“This means that the recent rises in these indices reflected
only seasonal pressures, not an underlying trend. For Toronto, the recent declines in the seasonally adjusted index were due to the sub-index for dwellings other than condos, down a cumulative 2.1%,” the report says. “Meanwhile, the condo index was up 1.6%. These numbers are consistent with market conditions, tighter for condos than for other
housing.”

The full report is available at housepriceindex.ca


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