$5 million benchmark price in 10 years if trends remain

by Ephraim Vecina20 Apr 2016

As Canada’s best performing real estate market for several years now, Vancouver has seen home prices grow inexorably to unmanageable levels, breaching the million-dollar mark recently and prompting disgruntled locals to voice out their concerns via the #donthave1million campaign.
Within a decade, however, these concerns might prove moot as benchmark costs could go as high as $5 million for each single-family home if present trends do not change, according to an analysis by Daniel Tencer and Jesse Ferreras of HuffPost Canada.
Taking current price growth rates into account, the duo’s predictions noted that the baseline price of a house in Vancouver would be sitting at $5.1 million by 2026, nearly double the present value of $2.8 million.
The story in Toronto—Canada’s next best-performing housing market—isn’t much better, with a projected price range of $2.26 million and $3.582 million for this type of property ten years hence.
Even going from a condo to a single-family home would become nigh-unaffordable for a significant proportion of would-be buyers within a decade.
“In Vancouver, it takes $879,000 to upgrade from an average condo to a house today, but 10 years from now it will cost between $1.99 million and $4.05 million,” Tencer and Ferreras wrote in their piece. “In Toronto today, upgrading from an average condo to an average house costs $758,000. By 2026, it will cost between $1.68 million and $2.95 million. Good luck.”
The HuffPost analysts said that while continuous growth in the next ten years is unlikely, “The point of this is not to scare you into rushing out and getting a huge mortgage before prices get any worse, it's to illustrate that what's going on in Toronto and Vancouver today can't go on.”

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