In a mid-September analysis, the Canadian Real Estate Association revised its home sales predictions upward amid B-20’s loosening grip.
The group cited the decline in mortgage rates with longer terms, including the Bank of Canada’s benchmark five-year rate, as the major driver in the more relaxed stress test seen during the past few months.
Stronger housing sales and recovering prices in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region also proved to be significant factors in this dynamic.
CREA’s 2019 projections for overall nationwide home sales now stands at 482,000 units, growing by 5% from the five-year low registered last year.
The adjusted figure was 19,000 transactions greater than CREA’s previous forecast, although it’s still considerably below the annual record of nearly 540,000 set in 2016.
And while British Columbia is likely to continue its deceleration for the rest of the year with a 5.4% annual decline in sales, this will be offset by expected strength in Ontario (8.3% gain) and Quebec (9.7% increase).
2020 is also promising a picture of sustained recovery and stability. National home sales are forecast to grow by 7.5% to 518,100 units next year, “with most of this increase reflecting a weak start to 2019 rather than a significant change in sales trends out to the end of next year.”
The Association emphasized, however, that “the overall level of national sales activity this year and next is anticipated to remain below levels recorded prior to the implementation of the B-20 stress test.”