Election hangover?

by John Tenpenny26 Oct 2015
With change comes uncertainty, and in the wake of Justin Trudeau’s stunning election victory, some Realtors are of the mind that the next few months could be busy as the script is flipped and buyers gain the upper hand on sellers.

James Knull, an Edmonton-area real estate agent says recent discussions with clients have been around the fact that Alberta it is still a pretty blue province and the affects that could have on decision-making.

“Around here many people are claiming the sky is falling and that the Liberals are going to completely sink Alberta,” Knull told CREW. “Is that true? Probably not. So what’s going to happen is people who are listening are going to wait to see how it plays out.

“The opportunity for buyers, he says, will come while “people who are buying into the media hype are afraid that the market is going to get worse and may try to dump their properties before things get worse.

“It’s a terrible environment for sellers, but a great environment for buyers.”

When it comes to the economic climate, some think real estate prices will remain stable.

“The purported increase in federal government spending might offset some of the increases in unemployment in Alberta that we are seeing, but not in the near term,” Phil Wazonek, an agent at Distinct Realty Services in Calgary told CREW. “Thus, I think real estate prices will continue their softening [in Alberta] but we won’t see any large decreases.”

Wazonek doesn’t see the creation of any buying opportunities unless unemployment rises and people start leaving the province.

“At this point, I am more worried about the NDP provincial budget coming out shortly,” he adds. “I think that could have more of an impact for investors in Alberta in the near term.”

The Liberals’ infrastructure spending plan could also have an impact on mortgage rates, according to Sherry Cooper, chief economist for Dominion Lending Centres, if the government issues more bonds to pay for the expenditure.

“Given that the BoC isn’t going to cut any further, and if anything the yield curve will steepen,” she said, “five-to-10 year yields will actually edge upward as investors realize that the supply of Canadian bonds is going to increase, and that means that mortgage rates will be stable to moderately higher over the next year.”

That could lead to some moderate cooling of overheated real estate markets like Vancouver and Toronto, Cooper added.

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